Mohamed AlgarjA scenario analysis estimating the potential illicit margin if one-fifth of Tripoli depot fuel were diverted, and arguing for end-to-end digital tracking.
20% — assumed fuel-diversion share in the author's conservative scenario
The analysis
A scenario analysis estimating the potential illicit margin if one-fifth of Tripoli depot fuel were diverted, and arguing for end-to-end digital tracking.
What the public record establishes
The linked records provide the institutional and numerical frame for this investigation. They support a documented reading, but do not automatically prove every causal claim or allegation. This is a modeled scenario, not proof that 20% was stolen or that any named actor profited. Publish the assumptions, depot throughput, subsidized and destination prices, and sensitivity range. Do not identify alleged smugglers without documentary or judicial evidence and a right of reply.
What remains unanswered
The public-interest test is what the responsible institutions publish next: the underlying decision, transaction-level data, implementation record and a response that can be checked against the evidence in this energy file.
Editorial method: This investigation rebuilds the original calculation from the linked public records, preserves the source period and transaction stage, and separates documented figures from estimates, interpretation and allegations.
Mohamed Algarj