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ANALYSIS · ESSAYS · FIELD NOTES

Ideas need
a permanent home.

Original English analysis and edited translations of Mohamed Algarj’s Arabic public work — grounded in official data, field reporting and clearly attributed sources.

ALGARJ / INSIGHTINDEPENDENT ENGLISH ANALYSIS · EST. 2026

Inside Libya’s
Letter of Credit System.

27 investigations follow official dollars from the national ledger to individual products, companies, banks and beneficiary networks. Historical figures are preserved in their original publication context.

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DATA ARCHIVE27

INVESTIGATIONS
ONE SYSTEM

49 public analyses.
Edited, sourced, translated.

The recovered collection preserves original Facebook links, labels date uncertainty instead of guessing, and publishes a searchable Arabic and English edition for every item.

Evidence, context.
A permanent record.

01

$419 Million Left the CBL’s Coffers Through 104 Companies. Who Stands Behind These Names?

From “Abundance of Livelihood” to “Moments of Happiness”: $419.24 million associated with 104 companies and factories in CBL data. Names and amounts are public; legal representatives are missing from the table. Who stands behind them, and what arrived in return for the transfers?

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02

Libya’s Decision 550: Market-Priced Heavy Fuel Oil and an Industrial Discount of Up to 15%

Libya links private-sector heavy fuel oil sales to Mediterranean prices. Analysis of 465,407 tonnes distributed over three months shows the financial stakes, industrial production equivalents and gaps in tracing recipients.

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03

The Dbeibah Files: A Commission Letter to Abdulhamid, a Bank Account in Ali’s Name

A US$107,000 payment from an Italian furniture supplier, a commission letter addressed to Abdulhamid, and an account in Ali Ibrahim’s name. The documents reveal how the arrangements worked—and why a widely cited commission total needs correcting.

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04

On September 1: What Happened to Libya’s Economy Between 2010 and 2025?

A full-year comparison finds faster growth in 2025—but a weaker dinar, lower dollar GDP per person and a sharp reversal in Libya’s fiscal and external balances.

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05

Why 2013 Became Libya’s Oil-Production Turning Point

A historical reading of Libya’s return to roughly 1.4 million barrels per day, contrasting it with the disruption cycle that began in 2013.

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06

Who Is Withholding the Data on Libya’s Public Money?

The analysis argues that the public-data trail linking oil receipts, state spending and foreign-exchange sales has become less complete or less regular. He calls for restored, comparable disclosure so the public can reconcile the main flows of Libya’s public finances.

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07

Who Gets Access to Libya’s Bank-Supplied Foreign Currency?

The analysis argues that access to bank-supplied foreign currency is uneven and vulnerable to influence and preferential treatment. He calls for consistent eligibility rules and disclosure that can show concentration across banks and beneficiaries.

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08

Transparency Without Exposure: The Privacy Risk in Brega's Beneficiary Lists

This investigation questions why a state-owned fuel distributor published beneficiaries' names alongside national identification numbers for cooking-gas allocations. It offers a useful public-service case study in data minimization: accountability can be preserved without exposing identifiers that enable fraud or profiling.

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09

Seventy-Six Cases: Mapping Libya's Public-Prosecution Record in the First Half of 2025

A structured tally of public-prosecution announcements identifies 76 case tracks and more than LYD 3.46 billion in amounts associated with alleged financial wrongdoing. This investigation also flags civil-registry investigations involving over 10,641 identity documents; republication needs a case-level audit and careful status labels.

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10

Separating the Oil-Contract Math from the Facebook Dispute

A reconstruction of a disputed oil-partnership calculation, including an estimated USD 269 million difference, while distinguishing contract economics from personal argument.

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11

Reconciling Libya’s Oil Export and Revenue Statements

This investigation identifies an apparent roughly USD 3 billion reconciliation gap between production/export assumptions and reported central-bank receipts and calls for matched institutional data.

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12

Inside Petro Air: What Forty Documents Allege About Governance and Spending

The investigation assembles internal-document claims about missions, contracts, debts, and governance at the state-owned oil-sector airline. Any English adaptation must distinguish authenticated records and official findings from the author's allegations, and avoid presenting money laundering or corruption as adjudicated fact.

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13

Inside the NOC’s Administrative Restructuring

A governance-focused review of management units being changed, merged or abolished at the National Oil Corporation and the implications for accountability and operational continuity.

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14

The Night Libya's Telecom Holding Company Closed—and the Revenue Decline Behind It

While condemning vandalism and institutional shutdowns, the investigation compares the incident with a steep multi-year decline in telecom-related public receipts reported by the Central Bank. The 2026 annualized figure is illustrative and should not be described as a forecast or consolidated company revenue.

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15

Nafusah Oil Operations and the Local Social Contract

An examination of the social-responsibility obligations of Nafusah Oil Operations toward communities near its Western Mountain activities.

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16

Libya’s Summer Oil Leadership Cycle

An analysis of recurring summer leadership changes at Libya’s National Oil Corporation and the accountability questions surrounding a roughly LYD 34 billion sector allocation.

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17

Libya's Overseas Scholarship Expansion Meets a 2025 Spending Freeze

This investigation estimates the fiscal weight of adding more than 3,000 overseas students in 2024, then sets it against staff reductions and the government's April 2025 suspension of new scholarships. An edited version should separate official student counts and central-bank transfers from the author's per-student cost assumptions.

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18

Libya's Malta Institute: Hundreds of Millions in Transfers, Few Public Performance Measures

Using central-bank disclosures, the investigation traces transfers to the Libyan-owned Tajourni Institute in Malta and highlights unusually concentrated monthly spending. The publishable story is an accountability question: what contracts, renovation milestones, training outputs, and audited accounts correspond to the transfers?

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19

Libya’s Gas Contraction Is an Economy-Wide Risk

An analysis of a stated 13% year-on-year gas-production decline and its implications for power generation, industry, exports and energy security.

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20

Libya’s Digital-Payments Push Is Stalling at the Point of Use

The analysis argues that consumer willingness to move away from cash has outpaced the banking system’s ability to deliver reliable, competitive digital payments. He calls for the Central Bank of Libya to clarify the bottlenecks, address service quality and oversee market access and fees.

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21

Fuel Subsidy Reform Needs the Full Spending Picture

This investigation argues that Libya’s fuel-subsidy debate should be assessed against the wider allocation of public spending rather than framed as a stand-alone cut.

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22

From 1.45 Million Barrels to Central-Bank Dollars

A flow-of-funds analysis distinguishing headline crude production from exportable barrels, fuel-import costs and cash ultimately transferred to the Central Bank of Libya.

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23

Fifteen Trips in Eighteen Months: Auditing Libya's Oil Diplomacy

This investigation counts the acting oil minister's foreign travel, meetings, countries, and corporate contacts from July 2024 through January 2026, then questions the public return. A robust edition should verify the itinerary and costs and test outcomes including memoranda, tenders, investment commitments, technical cooperation, and delayed contracts.

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24

Exchange-Rate Management Cannot Be Reduced to Meetings and Statements

Algarj criticizes the recurring cycle in which a parallel-market dollar spike is followed by official meetings and public statements but little visible implementation. This investigation argues for a dated, measurable fiscal and monetary response rather than episodic political signaling.

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25

A EUR 18.6 Million Health Contract Left Hanging Since 2013

This investigation traces a long-running mountain-region health contract worth EUR 18.6 million and questions the later use of a local alternative without a clearly disclosed termination or competitive process. The investigation should be rebuilt from the contract file, amendments, payments, technical inspections, and procurement approvals.

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26

The Daily Economics of Fuel Leakage in Tripoli

A scenario analysis estimating the potential illicit margin if one-fifth of Tripoli depot fuel were diverted, and arguing for end-to-end digital tracking.

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27

What the Central Bank of Libya’s China Agreement Could Change

This investigation explains that direct links with China’s payment infrastructure could simplify settlement for Libya-China trade. It also frames prospective investment in Chinese bonds as reserve diversification, while the practical benefits depend on implementation, currency and credit risk controls and disclosure.

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28

Bread, Flour and Potassium Bromate: Libya's Food-Safety Supply Chain Under Scrutiny

This investigation follows claims about potassium bromate, flour testing, mills, and shipment controls in Libya's bread supply. An English investigation should start from original laboratory certificates and regulatory decisions, then connect testing quality with import inspection, milling, bakery practice, and food-security consequences.

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29

Inside Afriqiyah Airways: Dollar Allowances Applied Retroactively

This investigation says an internal document records retroactive monthly dollar allowances at the state-owned carrier. An English edition should treat the document as an unverified primary lead and examine authorization, accounting treatment, and the company's response.

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30

A 7.20 Dinar Dollar Exposes the Cost of Libya’s Uncoordinated Policy

This investigation connects a 7.20 parallel-market dollar, high public spending and cash shortages, arguing that fiscal and monetary decisions are interacting rather than operating as separate problems. It calls for a coordinated plan covering spending, liquidity and currency management.

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31

The 2026 Social Numbers Any Libyan Government Must Plan Around

This investigation combines population, civil-registry, and social-affairs data to frame the service and protection burden facing Libya's government in 2026. An edited version should become a transparent baseline table showing source year, definition, coverage, and uncertainty for every indicator.

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32

25 People Detained Across 11 Banking Cases — One Institution-Affiliated Official Every Eight Days

Fifteen banking and finance case tracks led to 25 pretrial detentions in 11 files. The disclosed figures span credit exposure, alleged transactions, recovery and foreign-currency items that cannot be collapsed into one loss total.

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33

$2.285 Billion in Seven Months Under ‘Miscellaneous Transfers’ — But Where Did It Go?

Libya’s miscellaneous bank transfers rose 640% in one year, with 82.8% executed through two banks. The published tables show the channels—but not a transfer-only map of destinations or beneficiaries.

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34

15 People and More Than $13 Million Across Seven Health-Sector Cases — One Official Detained Every 18 Days

Seven health-sector case tracks disclosed more than LYD 120.7 million in contracts, investigated funds, restitution and fines, involving 15 people at different legal stages.

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35

Nearly $1.83 Billion in Fines and LYD 333 Million Recovered: Mapping the Money Across 113 Libyan Cases

A review of 113 case tracks found $1.83 billion in fines, LYD 333 million reported recovered and no measurable financial figure in 53% of cases.

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36

20 Death Sentences, Three Life Terms and More Than One Million Prison Hours: What 15 Homicide and Serious-Violence Cases Reveal

A review of 16 Libyan Attorney General posts covering 15 case tracks found 28 reported convictions, 20 death sentences, three life terms and 132 years and four months in fixed-term sentences.

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37

More Than 5.2 Million Pills in Six Months — An Estimated $8.2 Million Market

Eight drug-related case files disclosed 5,241,481 pills, 27 convictions and five pretrial detainees — while six files left the quantities unreported.

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38

1,770 National Numbers and 48 Detentions: Libya’s Identity-Fraud Market, Four Decades in the Making

An analysis of 46 Public Prosecutor releases identifies 44 case threads, at least 1,770 national numbers and no fewer than 1,795 reported beneficiaries.

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39

How did credits worth 1.54 million barrels of oil become concentrated among 27 companies tied to one family?

A ministry review tied $146.7 million in documentary credits to 27 companies and three beneficiaries from one family. The concentration — and the controls that allowed it — is the real story.

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40

Libya exported $18.46bn in oil. Only $11.16bn reached the Central Bank.

An Audit Bureau snapshot follows Libya’s oil dollars from recorded exports to collection, fuel-import deductions and the amount ultimately transferred to the Central Bank.

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41

A defendable dinar is not a number. It is a fiscal contract.

Two devaluations changed the official price of the dinar. They did not settle the harder question: what policy architecture can make that price credible?

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42

Foreign currency is Libya’s real budget

The state publishes dinar spending and dollar flows as separate stories. Reading them together reveals the pressure that headline budgets conceal.

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43

Zawiya is not a local security story

Attacks on a refinery, fuel depot and power infrastructure expose a national economic vulnerability, not an isolated incident.

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44

Mellitah’s Gas Interruption Exposes Domestic Supply Fragility

A report and analysis of a Mellitah gas-supply interruption affecting domestic consumers, especially electricity generation, against Libya’s limited replacement capacity.

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45

Libya’s 2026 Foreign-Exchange Demand Is Outrunning Public Disclosure

The analysis finds the CBL had sold $15.7 billion through July 21 and had approved roughly $3.5 billion more. He argues that the scale cannot be assessed responsibly without a consolidated view of public spending, oil revenue, reserve flows and the dollar balance.

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46

Petro Air, Harmony Jets and the Al-Haddad Crash: Documents, Flights and Unanswered Questions

This investigation traces alleged governance and commercial links involving Petro Air and Harmony Jets before examining the December 2025 crash that killed Libya's military chief and seven others. The strongest verifiable strand is the UN Panel of Experts' reporting; causation or operational responsibility for the crash requires the competent safety investigation and primary contracts.

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47

The Customs Valuation Gap Behind Libya’s Import Economy

This investigation highlighted a gap between the exchange-rate basis used to obtain foreign currency and the basis used to value imports for customs. That gap can reduce public revenue and distort competition, but its size depends on the applicable tariff, exemptions, valuation date and declared customs value.

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48

$581.5 Million in Medicine FX Approvals: Where Is the Oversight?

Starting from a Central Bank of Libya appendix showing $581.49 million associated with medicine-related foreign-currency use in 2025, The investigation contrasts the total with shortages and high retail costs. He calls for health-sector involvement in approvals and stronger auditing, while also making a broad fraud allegation that needs transaction-level proof.

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49

Beyond the media noise: reading Libya’s oil deal with Egypt

A reported two-cargo transaction looked less like a strategic market shift than a possible clearing mechanism for outstanding energy obligations.

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50

Oil-Sector Debt: Allocation Is Not Expenditure

A reconciliation of Libya’s reported oil-sector debt and funding, stressing the difference between approved budgets, released cash and actual spending.

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51

The missing tax question behind $14 billion in import credits

A transparent scenario tests the gap between the profits implied by Libya’s 2025 import-credit economy and the tax revenue recorded through November.

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52

One billion dollars for feed, half a billion for meat

Libya’s 2025 import figures raise a basic accountability question: what economic reality can explain simultaneous spending at this scale on animal feed and imported meat?

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53

Libyan Diplomacy’s Accountability Ledger, 2021–2025

This investigation assembles prosecution statements, audit findings, reported leaks, and foreign-asset cases involving Libyan missions and officials between 2021 and 2025. This investigation argues that the pattern reflects systemic governance failure in the foreign service, but several totals combine different currencies, statuses, and evidentiary levels.

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54

LYD 81.6 Million, Seven Years, Two Unchanging Decision-Support Figures

This investigation traces Nouri al-Abbar and Mohamed al-Darrat across decision-support roles as governments and presidential arrangements changed, and aggregates LYD 81.6 million in spending over seven years. It asks what publicly accessible policies, studies, or decisions resulted from that institutional continuity.

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55

Fifteen Roles, One Official: Mapping Concentrated Executive Authority in Libya

This investigation compiles 15 offices, portfolios, and committee memberships associated with Transport Minister and prime-ministerial financial adviser Mohammed al-Shahoubi. The strongest version would publish an appointment-by-appointment timeline and distinguish concurrent executive power from historical or ex officio roles.

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56

From 53rd to 115th: What Libya's Human-Development Slide Really Measures

This investigation uses Libya's fall in the Human Development Index ranking to question whether public spending has improved health, education, and living standards. A rigorous version should compare HDI values and component indicators—not ranks alone—and account for revised methods and country coverage.

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57

A Health Official Remanded Every Nine Days? Auditing Libya's 2025 Prosecution Record

This investigation converts 300 days of Attorney General announcements into a striking frequency measure and a monthly financial equivalent. The editorial opportunity is to publish the underlying case table and test whether people, cases, currencies, and procedural stages were counted consistently.

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58

Schoolbooks Still in Genoa Containers After Sixty Days

Algarj follows up on a schoolbook-printing contract and reports, based on contacts with the Italian printer and Libyan parties, that books remained stored at Genoa after 60 days. This investigation raises questions about contract structure, financing, ownership, shipment responsibility, and the cost of delay.

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59

Twenty Audit Findings About the UN Mission in Libya

This investigation distils administrative, financial, procurement, and staffing findings from UN documents concerning UNSMIL. It asks whether a mission with unresolved internal-control recommendations can credibly convene a national transparency process.

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60

What Might Migrant Labour Cost Libya? Testing a USD 3.3 Billion Estimate

Starting from IOM's count of 867,055 migrants from 44 nationalities, the investigation models a possible annual migrant wage bill of USD 3.3 billion. The number should be presented as a scenario—not measured remittances—and stress-tested against employment rates, informal work, wage distributions, and domestic spending.

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61

$35.5 Million for Tea in Eight Months

This later tea-only update extended the reporting window to August 2025 and put financing at $35.5 million. It complements, but overlaps, the earlier four-month coffee-and-tea basket and must not be added to it.

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62

Four million dollars for blankets — and a market hidden inside one line

A historical product-level reading follows the value from financing banks and importers to an estimated quantity of blankets.

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63

Eight Months of Dairy Financing: $134 Million and a Per-Capita Question

A later update put January–August 2025 dairy-related financing at about $134 million for roughly 55,000 tonnes and compared it with domestic output. It should be read as a later reporting window, not added to the earlier four-month total.

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64

Tripoli Central Hospital: High Spending, Weak Local Outcomes

Algarj compares reported hospital spending with operational and service indicators amid a public dispute over management. This investigation’s central accountability claim is that resource levels should be matched with measurable patient outcomes and transparent procurement.

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65

LYD 130 Million for Nuts: What Libya's 2025 Import-Financing Data Show

This investigation highlights more than LYD 130 million in nut-import financing over eight months and an August spike. The stronger analytical question is how discretionary food imports rank against staples and production inputs under foreign-exchange constraints, after validating product codes and financing stages.

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66

More Than $6 Million in Nut Imports Financed in One Month

Algarj aggregates August documentary-credit records for nuts to more than $6 million and asks which bank handled the largest share. This investigation is best framed as a concentration and disclosure question, not as evidence that importing nuts or receiving a credit is improper.

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67

The Alleged Forged Instrument Behind a $14 Billion Public Authority

This investigation alleges that a forged instrument was used to create a public authority whose cumulative cost reached $14 billion, then compares that figure with Libya's public payroll. A publishable edition must authenticate the instrument, rebuild the spending total from official statements, and avoid assigning criminal responsibility without a court finding.

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68

Libya’s Banks Became More Liquid. Productive Credit Barely Moved.

Three Central Bank bulletins covering October 2024 through June 2025 show M1, cash outside banks, excess reserves and lending all rising—while agriculture and industry remained marginal in the credit mix. The system moved; the productive structure barely did.

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69

A Public Research Centre’s Output Versus Its Multimillion-Dinar Cost

This investigation contrasts reported spending by Libya’s African Research and Studies Centre since 2022 with a small count of books, seminars, and public posts. It argues that the institution’s visible output is not commensurate with its budget and calls for performance disclosure.

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70

Why medical and consumer import credits need the same transparency test

A public post contrasted reported restrictions on oncology finance with approvals for consumer imports and demanded one standard of scrutiny.

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71

The Presidential Travel Ledger: 57 Trips, 29 Countries

Algarj compiles publicly announced trips by Presidential Council head Mohamed al-Menfi from March 2021 through August 2025 and contrasts time abroad with disclosed outcomes. The accountability question is whether costs, delegation sizes, and deliverables can be published systematically.

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72

One Airline Took 52% of Libya’s Aviation FX Allocation

Using central-bank foreign-currency data, The analysis finds Berniq received $100.6 million over seven months, more than half of the aviation-sector total. This investigation frames the concentration as a competition and allocation-governance question rather than conclusive evidence of wrongdoing.

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73

A LYD 43.1 Billion Services Deficit in Six Months: What Was Libya Paying For?

The Central Bank’s second-quarter bulletin recorded LYD 45.38 billion in service payments and LYD 2.28 billion in receipts in the first half of 2025. The resulting LYD 43.10 billion deficit nearly matched full-year deficits in 2023 and 2024, but the public table does not identify the services driving it.

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74

Libya’s Niger Embassy Spending More Than Doubled in One Year

This investigation says annual spending by Libya’s embassy in Niger rose sharply, driven mainly by payroll. It asks whether staffing, appropriations, and oversight explain the increase and whether the public received commensurate diplomatic value.

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75

Medsky's Flights, Fuel and Foreign Exchange: Testing a Multi-Million-Dollar Gap

This investigation models Medsky's expected operating needs against Central Bank foreign-currency figures and identifies an apparent gap. The model should be rebuilt with aircraft-specific burn rates, routes, wet-lease terms, maintenance, handling, and the actual execution status of credits.

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76

Libya’s Military Burden: From 15.5% to 6.4%

Algarj compares the military’s reported weight in Libya’s economy over time and questions the lack of a transparent fiscal debate about security spending. This investigation treats the falling share as an incomplete indicator because fragmented or off-budget armed-group spending may not be captured consistently.

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77

What are we supposed to do with agriculture?

A dismissive question about farming opens a wider debate about water management, food imports, agricultural spending and Libya’s capacity to produce.

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78

How a $1 Million Credit Could Produce More Than $350,000: Testing Every Assumption

This investigation tests a scenario in which invoice inflation, an official/parallel exchange-rate gap and an 80% bank facility could produce more than $350,000 from a $1 million credit. It is a risk model—not evidence that a named person or transaction followed the route described.

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79

Thirty Family Networks and 43% of June 2025 Credits

A company-by-company reading of the June 2025 disclosure attributed about $593 million—roughly 43% of the month’s $1.38 billion total—to companies grouped by family ties. The grouping is an analytical classification, not a legal finding of common ownership or misconduct.

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80

Four Years of Cement Credits, Four Shutdowns: What Did the FX Financing Deliver?

This investigation documents more than $170 million in cement-related credits over four years, including more than $160 million attributed to one company through May 2025. He compares that support with repeated plant shutdowns and asks whether official FX financing translated into stable output and domestic supply.

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81

Where did Libya’s oil dollars go in the first five months of 2025?

Letters of credit absorbed $6.291 billion — 44.4% of recorded foreign-currency uses — turning trade allocation into a public-finance question.

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82

Four Years of Sugar Credits: Quantity, Value and the Missing Reconciliation

This investigation compared annual sugar quantities and credit values from 2021 onward, highlighting a cumulative total above one million tonnes and sharp changes in unit value. Its claim that part of the volume was ‘missing’ requires customs, inventory, re-export and consumption data.

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83

$49.38 Million in Tyre Credits—and the Million-Tyre Estimate

This investigation identified $49.38 million in tyre-related credits through April 2025 and estimated the financing could represent about one million tyres. The quantity is a scenario, not a disclosed customs count.

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84

More Than $80 Million for Dairy Products in Four Months

This four-month snapshot grouped milk, butter, ghee and cheese credits above $80 million. It is a useful import-basket measure, but the categories, weights and financing stages must be aligned before drawing per-capita or domestic-production conclusions.

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85

3.23 Million Tonnes in Two Port Logs: A Capacity Test, Not a Confirmed Import Total

Daily movement reports from Tripoli and Khoms ports sum to 3,232,683 tonnes of wheat between 1 January and 7 May 2025. The arithmetic is reproducible; the physical total still requires vessel-level deduplication and reconciliation with discharge and customs records.

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86

Two million dollars for ketchup — or the cost of not producing locally

The 1,500-tonne ketchup bill became a historical test of import dependence, industrial policy and the opportunity cost of official dollars.

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87

$41.9 million for coffee and tea in four months

An archived aggregation turned two familiar drinks into a wider question about demand, pricing and Libya’s import economy.

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88

What four months of import credits reveal about Libya’s consumption model

Oil, sugar, feed, tea, coffee, cigarettes, bananas, diapers, shampoo and ketchup show the breadth of the official-dollar import basket.

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89

Libya Financed Nearly One Million Tonnes of Barley in Four Months

Algarj aggregates CBL documentary-credit records to estimate 962,271 tonnes of barley imports worth $240.57 million in January-April 2025. This investigation uses the scale to question demand, end use, import valuation and the opportunity for domestic agricultural production.

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90

The 115 Million-Litre Cooking-Oil Claim Behind Three Months of Credits

This investigation converted $116.5 million in cooking-oil credit records for January–March 2025 into more than 105,000 tonnes and roughly 115 million litres. The conversion is a model that depends on product mix, density, freight, packaging and the execution status of each credit.

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91

Three importers, $25.9 million, and Libya’s rice market

A historical snapshot of rice credits shows why company-level disclosure matters as much as the aggregate import bill.

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92

$309 million in ten days: reading Libya’s import-credit ledger

A ten-day disclosure identifies leading companies and banks, then asks what aggregate transparency still leaves unanswered.

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Evidence first.
Argument second.

Every analysis distinguishes official figures from interpretation, preserves the time period of historical snapshots and avoids attributing responsibility where the evidence does not support it.

New work has
a permanent address.

New Arabic or English drafts can be edited, translated when needed, source-checked and published here as indexed, shareable articles.